30/05: Nigeria
Is the brewing civil unrest (war?) in Nigeria more of a threat to the US than all the alarms( "noise") about Iran? Commentator John Mauldin thinks so. He may be correct.
Perhaps a nation that valued conservation would be less vulnerable to oil supply disruptions.
OSF 5/30/2006
Perhaps a nation that valued conservation would be less vulnerable to oil supply disruptions.
OSF 5/30/2006
23/05: Benchmark Investment Seminar
Benchmark is planning a seminar!
Please join us on Wednesday, June 14, at 12:30 PM for a lunchtime seminar on defensive investing: How to profit in the coming difficult markets. A light lunch will be ordered in.
While we are not forecasting down markets we do beleive that the chances of financial chaos have risen. The ferocity of the recent market decline is an indication that volatility in the coming weeks and months may well be significantly greater than in the past year.
Aggressive portfolios will likely suffer in this environment. The Seminar will explore strategies that work for more volatile times.
There is no cost but there will be a commerical for Benchmark's Safe Haven Fund, a conservative fund designed to prosper in diffcult markets.
Date: June 14, Wednesday
Time: 12:30 PM
Place: 1700 Sansom Street - 11th Floor, Philadelphia
RSVP to Marnita @215-557-7114
Please join us on Wednesday, June 14, at 12:30 PM for a lunchtime seminar on defensive investing: How to profit in the coming difficult markets. A light lunch will be ordered in.
While we are not forecasting down markets we do beleive that the chances of financial chaos have risen. The ferocity of the recent market decline is an indication that volatility in the coming weeks and months may well be significantly greater than in the past year.
Aggressive portfolios will likely suffer in this environment. The Seminar will explore strategies that work for more volatile times.
There is no cost but there will be a commerical for Benchmark's Safe Haven Fund, a conservative fund designed to prosper in diffcult markets.
Date: June 14, Wednesday
Time: 12:30 PM
Place: 1700 Sansom Street - 11th Floor, Philadelphia
RSVP to Marnita @215-557-7114
19/05: Structural Adjustment Redux
Last June I wrote the following:
Are we prepared as a nation to undergo a change from spending to saving?
How else will we be able to navigate our way through the demographic time-bomb in our future?
If Baby-Boomers are to live comfortably in retirement with adequate income and health care it seems we must increase our saving. How else can we prepare?
Our current approach of saving little and spending more than we earn (both as families and nation) will leave us poorer in the future. As someone has pointed out elsewhere (Bill Bonner at the Daily Reckoning perhaps), a nation or a family cannot get wealthier by spending more.
The investment implications of this coming adjustment are murky in the short term but certain in the longer term. Our future will involve more saving which means less spending. The impact on our nation's businesses may well be significant when this change occurs.
Are we ready?
O. Sam Folin, CFA
June 17 2005
What has changed since then?
Unfortunately not much. Energy prices are much higher. Interst rates are higher. Wages after inflation are a little higher. Home sales are slowing. Home price increases are moderating....soon to fall? Saving is still negative.
In the last eight days the US stock markets have discovered that something is amiss. The headlines would lead you to believe that unexpected inflation (in the recent CPI release) is the culprit. Unlikely. The bond market is the best barometer of inflation expectations and it remains calm, more or less.
Perhaps the market is anticipating a slowdown in consumer spending on consumer goods in order that gasoline might be afforded? Or perhaps families are starting to save?
I do not know. What I do know is that the structural change described last June is coming. It is a question of when, not if.
The investment implications will be profound. Are you ready?
OSF
May 19, 2006
Are we prepared as a nation to undergo a change from spending to saving?
How else will we be able to navigate our way through the demographic time-bomb in our future?
If Baby-Boomers are to live comfortably in retirement with adequate income and health care it seems we must increase our saving. How else can we prepare?
Our current approach of saving little and spending more than we earn (both as families and nation) will leave us poorer in the future. As someone has pointed out elsewhere (Bill Bonner at the Daily Reckoning perhaps), a nation or a family cannot get wealthier by spending more.
The investment implications of this coming adjustment are murky in the short term but certain in the longer term. Our future will involve more saving which means less spending. The impact on our nation's businesses may well be significant when this change occurs.
Are we ready?
O. Sam Folin, CFA
June 17 2005
What has changed since then?
Unfortunately not much. Energy prices are much higher. Interst rates are higher. Wages after inflation are a little higher. Home sales are slowing. Home price increases are moderating....soon to fall? Saving is still negative.
In the last eight days the US stock markets have discovered that something is amiss. The headlines would lead you to believe that unexpected inflation (in the recent CPI release) is the culprit. Unlikely. The bond market is the best barometer of inflation expectations and it remains calm, more or less.
Perhaps the market is anticipating a slowdown in consumer spending on consumer goods in order that gasoline might be afforded? Or perhaps families are starting to save?
I do not know. What I do know is that the structural change described last June is coming. It is a question of when, not if.
The investment implications will be profound. Are you ready?
OSF
May 19, 2006
Recent days have seen a return of stock market volatility. In the background commodities are tracing the final throes of a bubble -hyperbolic rise followed by a crash - that will play out in the coming days and weeks. Likewise the dollar has begun to decline again after months of recovery from the sharp decline of 2004.
Is this the beginning of a new down market or simply a pause in the bounce from the lows of 2002? Is it a resumption of the 2000-2003 bear market. We know not. it is unkowable.
We do know that in these uncertain times diversification is more important than ever.
Portfolios with only traditional exposure to US stocks and bonds may not be faring well in this time of emerging volatility.
Diversification beyond the norm may allow for better returns with less risk.
Are you prepared for what may come?
If not, why not?
OSF
May 15, 2006
Is this the beginning of a new down market or simply a pause in the bounce from the lows of 2002? Is it a resumption of the 2000-2003 bear market. We know not. it is unkowable.
We do know that in these uncertain times diversification is more important than ever.
Portfolios with only traditional exposure to US stocks and bonds may not be faring well in this time of emerging volatility.
Diversification beyond the norm may allow for better returns with less risk.
Are you prepared for what may come?
If not, why not?
OSF
May 15, 2006
10/05: More Risk Than Usual?
Seven Things That Might Go Wrong In the Next Year
1. The US Dollar collapses against European & Asian currencies – US interest rates rise sharply
2. US Home prices fall sharply causing major consumer retrenchment (see #1)
3. Oil prices rise ever higher. Supplies disrupted. Economy suffers
4. Bird Flu causes havoc in the US
5. Conflict in the middle-east spreads encompassing Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Afghanistan, & Pakistan and begins to look like a World War
6. US Constitutional Crisis caused by congressional corruption scandal
7. Terrorist attack in US
Will your investment portfolio thrive if one or more of these turns into reality?
May 19 - Let's add an eighth risk
8. DC politicians enact tariffs on China as punishment for their currency manipulation. Trade war follows. US assets and the US $ collapse.
1. The US Dollar collapses against European & Asian currencies – US interest rates rise sharply
2. US Home prices fall sharply causing major consumer retrenchment (see #1)
3. Oil prices rise ever higher. Supplies disrupted. Economy suffers
4. Bird Flu causes havoc in the US
5. Conflict in the middle-east spreads encompassing Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Afghanistan, & Pakistan and begins to look like a World War
6. US Constitutional Crisis caused by congressional corruption scandal
7. Terrorist attack in US
Will your investment portfolio thrive if one or more of these turns into reality?
May 19 - Let's add an eighth risk
8. DC politicians enact tariffs on China as punishment for their currency manipulation. Trade war follows. US assets and the US $ collapse.
